Continued Tracking | Russia-Ukraine conflict for 4 months, what are the gains and losses of all parties?

Since the full outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on February 24, Western countries led by the United States have imposed unprecedented and extensive sanctions on Russia in economic, financial, energy and other fields, while Ukraine has received huge military, economic and humanitarian assistance. At the same time, the “shock wave” of the Russia-Ukraine conflict has spread all over the world, and the world is facing multiple challenges. On June 24, this conflict ushered in a 4-month time node. What are the gains and losses of various stakeholders?Continued Tracking | Russia-Ukraine conflict for 4 months, what are the gains and losses of all parties? -Continued-Tracking-Russia-Ukraine-conflict-for-4-months-what-are

On June 18, 2022 local time, smoke rises from the monument to the liberators of the Donbass after shelling.The pictures in this article are all people’s visual data maps

Russia: Ukraine has made progress, encounters “unprecedented” sanctions under the war of attrition, but “can fight” more than expected

After launching the “special military operation” on February 24, Russia initially advanced to Ukraine from the north, east and south, and launched attacks on major cities such as Kyiv, Mariupol, Kharkov, and Kherson, but the progress was relatively slow. , Russia and Ukraine are in a stalemate. At the end of March, Russian Defense Minister Shoigu said that the main tasks of the first phase of the “special military operation” had been completed, and Russia began to focus on the main goal of “liberating” Donbass.

Many Western media analysts believe that after the focus of the conflict moved eastward to the Donbas region, the Russian military has made “slow but significant” progress. At present, most of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions have been controlled by the Russian army, and the fierce fighting in the eastern Ukrainian region is still going on. If the Russian military operations in Severo-Donetsk and Lisichansk are successful, the entire Luhansk Oblast will be under Russian control. In addition, the Russian army continued to advance in southern Ukraine, took control of Mariupol on May 20, and is still strengthening the ground offensive in the Zaporozhye region.

Since the escalation of the conflict, Russia has only released casualty information twice in March. The last official data on March 25 showed that a total of 1,351 Russian soldiers were killed in “special military operations”. However, as the conflict continued and ushered in the critical milestone of four months, the outside world’s assessment of the Russian casualty data also gradually increased.

According to reports from The Guardian and The New York Times, Western officials estimate that the total number of Russian troops dispatched in Ukraine should be between 150,000 and 200,000, and the actual number of Russian casualties as of June may have exceeded official Russian data. 10 times, and a lot of weapons and equipment were also damaged. According to the Ukrainian army, Russia has begun to use the T-62 tanks during the Cold War and rebuild some battalion-level battle groups (BTG). Rochan Consulting, an independent defence information firm, said it “highlights a serious manpower issue”. On May 25, Russia announced the abolition of the upper age limit for the first military service contracts signed by its own and foreign citizens with the Russian military. Al Jazeera analysis believes that this shows that Russia may want to recruit more soldiers for its military operations in Ukraine to solve the shortage of troops.

However, the “Financial Times” pointed out that the Russian army still has an advantage over the Ukrainian side in the field of equipment and personnel. The Guardian also admitted that Western officials tended to overestimate Russian casualties, and under the overwhelming dominance of Russian artillery, even the Ukrainian army admitted that the Russian casualties in the Eastern Ukrainian battlefield were far lower than those of Ukrainian troops. square.

While Russia and Ukraine are in a tug of war, Western countries led by the United States have imposed “unprecedented” comprehensive sanctions on Russia.

Shortly after the escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the West immediately announced that some Russian banks would be excluded from the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Communication (SWIFT) system, which once caused the ruble exchange rate to plummet. At the same time, the West has also initiated sanctions against Russian companies and individuals, freezing or even confiscating their property, involving more than a thousand political and business people and their relatives. In the field of energy, the United States announced a ban on the import of Russian oil and natural gas as early as March, the United Kingdom immediately announced that it would gradually get rid of its dependence on Russian oil by the end of 2022, and the European Union announced that it would stop importing Russian coal before August, but did not discuss natural gas-related matters. Sanctions agreed. Under the cloud of conflict, well-known international companies in various industries such as McDonald’s, Siemens, Apple, Nike, Adidas, and Netflix have also announced to suspend their business in Russia or withdraw from the Russian market. All Russian flights have been banned from entering the United States, the United Kingdom, and the European Union. and Canadian airspace, affecting the lives and travel of Russian people.

However, although the Russian economy was once severely hit by sanctions, it was still more “capable” than expected. In the face of heavy sanctions from the West, Russia launched a natural gas “ruble settlement order” and lowered its benchmark interest rate four times since the beginning of April to stabilize its currency and financial system. The ruble subsequently rebounded successfully. At the same time, high energy prices have made up for Russia’s export losses, and Russia’s energy exports are also shifting from the West to the East, India and other countries, looking for a new “way out”. The British “Economist” magazine published an article: “Under the ‘unprecedented and severe’ sanctions of Western countries, the Russian economy has only suffered ‘skin wounds’, but not the bones. At present, the ruble has recovered all the lost ground, and the Russian entity The economy is also showing ‘amazing resilience’.”Continued Tracking | Russia-Ukraine conflict for 4 months, what are the gains and losses of all parties? -1656044043_280_Continued-Tracking-Russia-Ukraine-conflict-for-4-months-what-are

On June 4, 2022, local time, in the Donetsk region, local conflicts continued, and the streets of the city were devastated. Residents continued to evacuate.

Ukraine: Ukraine is in emergency, refugees are pouring out, and Western military aid continues, opening the “fast lane” to Europe

Western officials generally believe that after the “main battlefield” of the Russia-Ukraine conflict was transferred to the eastern region of Ukraine, Ukraine has clearly fallen into a disadvantage. On June 2, local time, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that Russia currently controls nearly one-fifth of Ukraine’s territory, about 125,000 square kilometers, and the length of the Russian-Ukrainian military front exceeds 1,000 kilometers. Up to now, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is mainly concentrated in Severo-Donetsk and Lisichansk. Luhansk Oblast Governor Sergei Gede admitted that in the entire Luhansk Oblast, the only city that Ukraine fully controls is Lisichansk, and the Russian army has controlled 80% of Severo Donetsk. In addition, the Russian army is still launching artillery bombardments all over Ukraine to attack the military infrastructure of Ukraine, with the eastern and southern cities as the key targets.

After a four-month war of attrition, the Ukrainian army suffered huge losses. According to the British “Guardian” report on June 10, data from the International Institute for Strategic Studies shows that the Ukrainian army has a total of about 125,000 soldiers, and another 102,000 nationals and border guards. However, the adviser to the President of Uzbekistan revealed that with the increasingly anxious situation in the east of Ukraine, the total daily casualties of the Ukrainian army are currently at a high level, fluctuating between 600-1,000. Vadym Skibitsky, deputy head of Ukraine’s military intelligence service, said that Ukraine currently uses 5,000-6,000 rounds of shells a day and has “almost exhausted” its stockpiles of Soviet 152mm standard shells.

At the same time, Ukrainian refugees continue to flow to neighboring countries. According to the latest figures from the United Nations refugee agency (UNHCR), about 7.3 million people left Ukraine from February 24 to June 7, and there were at least 4.8 million refugees from Ukraine across Europe. In addition, despite the still unstable security situation in Ukraine, Ukrainian citizens have returned to Ukraine. However, many of them had to leave again due to the destruction of their homes and the difficulty in finding work.

However, unlike Russia, which is frequently sanctioned, Ukraine has received a large amount of military aid from Western countries since the escalation of the conflict, and continues to call for more support from the West.

As Ukraine’s largest arms donor, the United States has provided Ukraine with $4.6 billion (about 30.85 billion yuan) in military aid. On June 15, Biden announced a new military aid worth 1 billion U.S. dollars, including coastal defense weapons and artillery required for the Donbas operation, which also brought the total U.S. military aid to Ukraine to more than 5.6 billion U.S. dollars ( About RMB 37.56 billion).

Poland is the second largest arms donor to Ukraine after the United States. According to Polish and US media reports, Poland has shipped weapons worth 1.6 billion US dollars (about 10.72 billion yuan) to Ukraine, including more than 200 tanks and a large number of anti-tank missiles, mortars, ammunition and unmanned aircraft.

The British government said in May that it would assist the Ukrainian army with 450 million pounds (about 3.76 billion yuan), and also promised to provide Ukraine with electronic warfare equipment, GPS jamming equipment and thousands of night vision devices. Additional provision of a small number of M270 multiple rocket launcher systems.

According to AFP statistics, since February this year, Canada has provided 262 million Canadian dollars (about 1.385 billion yuan) in military aid to Ukraine. In late May, the Canadian government also stated that it would provide Ukraine with an additional 20,000 artillery shells to complement the M777 howitzers it had previously assisted to strengthen Ukraine’s defense capabilities in the Donbas region.

Germany, which has been criticized for its slow military aid to Ukraine, also announced on June 16 that it would further strengthen its support to Ukraine. Delivered 30 cheetah self-propelled anti-aircraft guns, IRIS-T air defense system, “Cobra” COBRA artillery positioning radar system and other weapons and equipment to Ukraine. On the same day, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense confirmed that the self-propelled howitzers provided by Germany had arrived in Ukraine.

In addition to the above-mentioned countries, Northern European, Central and Eastern European countries and some Asian countries have all pledged to provide weapons assistance to Ukraine, involving materials including “Javelin” anti-tank missiles, “Stinger” missiles, howitzers, anti-tank mines and anti-tank guns, pistols and various type ammunition.

At the same time, Ukraine’s process of joining the European Union has also entered the “fast lane” due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. On February 28, Zelensky signed a document asking the EU to urgently pass Ukraine’s application for EU membership. On April 8, the European Commission formally submitted a questionnaire related to the accession to Ukraine. On June 17, the European Commission recommended granting Ukraine candidate status for the European Union. On June 23, at the EU summit that day, Ukraine was officially granted EU candidate status.Continued Tracking | Russia-Ukraine conflict for 4 months, what are the gains and losses of all parties? -1656044043_816_Continued-Tracking-Russia-Ukraine-conflict-for-4-months-what-are

On May 4, 2022 local time, Strasbourg, France, European Commission President von der Leyen said that the European Union will completely ban oil imports from Russia within six months.

EU: The seventh round of sanctions is brewing, internal differences are intensifying, and the cost of sanctions against Russia is becoming more and more obvious

Since the escalation of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the EU has imposed six rounds of sanctions on Russia, covering finance, energy, transportation, media, diplomacy and many other fields. It has also imposed sanctions on Belarus for “supporting Russia’s military operations”. However, in view of the EU’s high dependence on Russian energy, there have always been differences within the EU on energy sanctions against Russia.

As early as the beginning of May, the EU submitted a draft of the sixth round of sanctions against Russia, including that most member states should stop importing Russian oil by the end of this year. However, as many member states, including Hungary, worried that sanctions against Russia would affect their energy supply, the EU’s internal negotiation was once in a difficult situation. Until June 3, the sixth round of EU sanctions was “long overdue”, saying that it would stop buying Russian seaborne crude oil within 6 months, and stop buying Russian oil products within 8 months, but rely on Russian pipeline crude oil. Member States can receive temporary exemptions.

At present, the EU is preparing a seventh round of sanctions against Russia, but internal differences are still “stumbling blocks”. According to a Reuters report on June 20, about a third of the 27 EU countries, mainly northern and eastern European countries, want the European Commission to carry out a seventh round of sanctions against Russia, EU diplomats said. Countries such as Germany, however, prefer to focus on implementing existing sanctions and plugging loopholes, rather than beginning the complex process of agreeing on new measures. On the energy issue, European countries that are highly dependent on natural gas imports are increasingly torn apart. Germany is swaying, Hungary firmly opposes the energy ban, and Poland expresses its desire to expand the scope of sanctions to the natural gas ban.

In addition, there are also major differences within the EU on the issue of giving Ukraine new military support. At present, the EU has provided Ukraine with 2 billion euros of military support from the “European Peace Fund”, and the northern and eastern European countries represented by Sweden and Poland have called for immediate payment of additional funds to Ukraine. But countries such as Germany are reluctant to make further use of the “European Peace Fund”, citing budgetary concerns, citing the risk of not having enough money to deal with other crises.

At the same time, the cost of sanctions against Russia is gradually emerging in European countries. Under the influence of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, countries are increasingly worried about the “lack of gas” in winter. Germany, Austria, the Netherlands and other countries have successively announced the relaxation of restrictions on coal power generation. At the same time, the persistently high inflation rate that has repeatedly been “out of the table” has also made people in European countries miserable, and economic recovery after the epidemic is even more difficult. According to preliminary statistics from Eurostat, due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the energy market continued to fluctuate, and food prices soared. Workers from France, Germany, Belgium, the United Kingdom and other countries took to the streets one after another to hold strikes or demonstrations to protest the rising cost of living and shrinking wages.

According to Xinhua News Agency, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said on June 20 that rising energy prices, supply disruptions and more uncertainties have adversely affected economic activities in the euro zone, and high inflation in Europe has spread to various industries. As a result, the ECB intends to raise rates by 25 basis points at its July monetary policy meeting and is expected to raise key rates again in September.Continued Tracking | Russia-Ukraine conflict for 4 months, what are the gains and losses of all parties? -1656044043_598_Continued-Tracking-Russia-Ukraine-conflict-for-4-months-what-are

On February 28, 2022, local time, in Delaware, the United States, military equipment was prepared to be shipped to Ukraine.

The United States: Sanctions on Russian energy while attracting oil-producing countries, and a large list of military aid to Ukraine

After the escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the United States immediately announced a complete ban on energy imports from Russia in March, and said that it was formulating a long-term strategy to reduce the dependence of European allies and partners on Russian energy. On the other hand, U.S. President Biden is constantly running for energy and intends to win over major oil-producing countries.

As early as early March, when the situation in Russia and Ukraine failed to cool down and the global energy supply was tight, Western countries, including the United States, frequently asked Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, which have surplus production capacity in OPEC, to increase oil production to help them reduce their dependence on Russia for energy. Recently, as the average U.S. gasoline price soared to a record high, Biden, who is about to usher in the midterm elections, was exposed to be considering “bow to reality”, and even if he could not reach an agreement with Iran on reviving the 2015 nuclear deal, it may allow more sanctions. of Iranian oil enters the global market.

In addition, the Biden administration was also considering other options, such as buying Russian oil “at a price below market prices.” After OPEC+ agreed to increase oil production on June 2, the United States also announced that Biden will make his first visit to the Middle East in mid-July, and will visit Israel, Palestine and Saudi Arabia. Although the Biden administration said the focus of the trip was on security issues rather than energy issues, CNN reported that Biden’s trip was to persuade Saudi Arabia to pump more oil and help ease the political impact of soaring gasoline prices in the United States.

At the same time, because the US intelligence agency believes that Saudi Crown Prince Salman may order the killing of journalist Khashoggi, Biden has previously made it clear that he will avoid direct contact with the Saudi crown prince. Therefore, Biden’s visit to Saudi Arabia and “inconsistent words and deeds” have also attracted a lot of domestic criticism, saying that he “lost the moral compass” by controlling the demand for oil prices.

While attracting major oil-producing countries, the United States has also continued to issue a large list of military aid to Ukraine. According to the official website of the US Department of Defense, since the escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine until June 15, the United States has promised to provide Ukraine with more than 5.6 billion US dollars (about 37.56 billion yuan) in military assistance, including 400 sets of “Stinger” portable Air defense missiles, 6,500 “Javelin” anti-tank missiles, 20,000 other anti-tank missiles, 700 “Switchblade” UAVs, and more than 120 “Phoenix Ghost” cruise missiles specially developed to meet the needs of Ukraine. and ammunition.

However, the United States also has concerns while providing large amounts of aid to Ukraine. CNN quoted sources who analyzed that on the one hand, the United States does not know the whereabouts, effective use rate, consumption rate, etc. of Western weapons entering Ukraine, which makes the prediction of the war situation and the formulation of aid policies for Ukraine more and more difficult. difficulty. On the other hand, the protracted conflict is causing the cost of aid to Ukraine by Western countries to continue to rise. Some Western governments, including the United States, have grown concerned that weapons donated to Ukraine have depleted the national stockpile of weapons vital to its own defense. A senior U.S. administration official acknowledged that this was “a legitimate concern” for the United States.Continued Tracking | Russia-Ukraine conflict for 4 months, what are the gains and losses of all parties? -1656044043_713_Continued-Tracking-Russia-Ukraine-conflict-for-4-months-what-are

On March 29, 2022 local time, in Istanbul, Turkey, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan met with members of the Russian and Ukrainian delegations and delivered a speech. The Russian-Ukrainian delegation held the fifth round of negotiations in the Istanbul office (Dolmabahce Palace).

Turkey: Gaining new bargaining chips through NATO expansion, weapons are selling well under the conflict

Since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Turkey has always conducted shuttle diplomacy on the world political stage, once bringing Russia and Ukraine closer to reaching a peace agreement. Since Finland and Sweden applied to join NATO to jointly deal with Russia, Turkey has become a “vanguard” against the “joining” of the two countries, and its attitude is extremely tough. Some analysts believe that Turkey intends to enhance its sense of existence through shuttle diplomacy, highlight its important role as a “mediator”, and at the same time use the opportunity of NATO expansion to declare its own interests and demands, in exchange for “one-vote veto” to compete with Western powers. Multiple chips.

According to Reuters, Sweden and Finland submitted their applications to join NATO in May this year. According to the regulations, if the two countries want to become official NATO members, they need to get the unanimous consent of 30 NATO countries. However, the Turkish side has repeatedly expressed opposition because the two countries allow organizations such as the “Gulen Movement” and the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, which are designated as terrorist organizations by Turkey, to carry out activities against Turkey in their territories. In addition, the Turkish side also accused Sweden of supplying weapons and equipment to the PKK. According to Turkey’s “List of Requirements for Joining the Treaty”, Switzerland and Finland must stop supporting the above-mentioned “terrorist organizations” and lift the arms embargo and related sanctions against Turkey.

On June 13, NATO Secretary-General Stoltenberg said during a visit to Sweden that Turkey’s security concerns were “reasonable” and that Sweden had decided to make changes to the country’s anti-terrorism laws and to ensure a legislative framework for the country’s arms exports. , hoping to allow Sweden and Finland to join NATO “as soon as possible”. However, according to the British “Financial Times” report, Turkey refused to participate in the trilateral talks organized by NATO between Turkey, Finland and Sweden. President Erdogan of the country reiterated his position on June 15, saying that the two countries will take “clear, Turkey will not change its stance until concrete and decisive actions are taken to combat terrorism.

At the same time, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict also provided a new “stage” for Turkish weapons that had played an important role in the previous Naqqa conflict. According to the Russian news website “The Insider” (The Insider) reported on May 31, since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Turkish-made drones have repeatedly helped Ukraine to dampen the attacks of Russian ground forces. After seeing the situation in Ukraine, “the world is racing to buy the TB2 attack drone,” said the drone’s designer, Selchuk Bairaktar.Continued Tracking | Russia-Ukraine conflict for 4 months, what are the gains and losses of all parties? -1656044043_721_Continued-Tracking-Russia-Ukraine-conflict-for-4-months-what-are

On May 24, 2022 local time, Tokyo, Japan, the “Quartet Mechanism” summit of the United States, Japan, India and Australia was held on the same day. US President Biden holds talks with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

India: Maintain political neutrality, strengthen military exchanges with the United States and the West, and obtain low-priced crude oil from Russia

In recent years, as a key part of the US “Indo-Pacific strategy”, India and the US have become increasingly close. However, since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, India has not followed the US-led Western sanctions offensive against Russia, but has repeatedly emphasized its neutral position and called for a ceasefire through dialogue, hoping to achieve a ceasefire through dialogue between the US, the West and Russia. “walk the tightrope” to maximize their own interests.

On the one hand, although the United States has repeatedly named India and accused it of “unstable position”, the two countries announced in April this year that they would strengthen defense cooperation. According to the US media “Defense News”, the United States and India will promote cooperation between the aerospace departments of the two countries on space situational awareness and exchanges, and deepen cooperation in cyberspace through training and exercises. US Defense Secretary Austin also emphasized that the United States will seek a financing method that can reduce the price of US weapons and push India to “get rid of its dependence on Russian weapons.” The two countries will also take some “supply chain cooperation measures” to quickly support each other’s priorities in defense needs.

In addition, during the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, some countries, including the United Kingdom and the United States, expressed their willingness to provide India with more arms export services and to strengthen defense cooperation with it. According to Reuters, India, the world’s largest buyer of Russian military equipment, also intends to diversify its arms supply. It has begun to seek more weapons and ammunition from Eastern European countries, while actively promoting its domestic companies’ equipment manufacturing. According to an analysis by the US website War on the Rocks, the speed and extent of Western sanctions against Russia have made India aware of the importance of “technical autonomy”.

On the other hand, India has withstood the enormous pressure from the West to maintain a relatively stable relationship with Russia, and may deliberately take the opportunity to “scrape the wool” and increase the import of “discounted” crude oil from Russia. Like much of the world, India is struggling to prevent runaway inflation from rising fuel prices, and Russian crude, whose prices have fallen sharply in the wake of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, is an excellent choice.

The Wall Street Journal recently reported that, according to industry sources, the Indian government is urging the country’s state-owned oil company to import large quantities of cheap crude from Russia. Although unnamed Indian government officials denied this, according to data from commodities data tracker Kpler, since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, India’s crude oil imports from Russia have increased by more than 25 times, with an average daily average in June. Buy 1 million barrels of crude oil, compared with the average daily purchase of only 30,000 barrels in February. Russian President Vladimir Putin also said on June 23 that Russia’s oil supply to India and other countries is growing significantly, and India has become “one of the most important customers” for Russia’s oil exports.

However, India’s purchase of cheap Russian crude oil has also been warned by the United States. According to Reuters and the “Financial Times” reported on June 9, the US State Department’s senior energy security adviser Hokstein said on the same day that although the United States cannot ban India from buying Russian crude oil because it has not imposed secondary sanctions on imports of Russian oil, India should not “Too much”, don’t let everyone think that it is “taking advantage of the pain that European and American families are going through.”Continued Tracking | Russia-Ukraine conflict for 4 months, what are the gains and losses of all parties? -1656044043_133_Continued-Tracking-Russia-Ukraine-conflict-for-4-months-what-are

On May 6, 2022, local time, Ukrainian soldiers inspect a barn near the front line in Kherson Oblast.

Global: Russia-Ukraine conflict has far-reaching consequences, triggering multiple crises

The impact of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict far exceeds the regional scope, and it has set off a huge “shock wave” on a global scale, triggering multiple crises.

In terms of food security, Russia and Ukraine are the two major exporters of wheat, corn, rapeseed, sunflower seeds and sunflower oil in the world. The total exports of these goods account for 12% of the total world market. Russia is also the world’s largest fertilizer producer. country. After the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Ukrainian grain could not be delivered to the international market, while the export of Russian fertilizers was restricted due to sanctions, which led to a sharp rise in global food prices and raised concerns about global food security and a series of problems it may cause.

Dozens of countries will face protests, riots and political violence this year as food prices soar around the world, the head of the UN World Food Programme, David Beasley, said on June 17. risk.

In this regard, the West and Russia accuse each other of being responsible for the food problem, and have fallen into a “food scolding war”. However, according to a report by “Turkish News” on June 21, the four-party talks between Turkey, Ukraine, Russia and the United Nations will be held in Istanbul within 10 days. At that time, it may provide a new way to smoothly transport Ukrainian grain to the world and solve the food crisis.

The Russian-Ukrainian conflict has also profoundly affected the global energy landscape. On the one hand, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has greatly pushed up global oil and gas prices. According to Forbes, the price of international crude oil has been rising since the escalation of the conflict, and has remained at a high level after reaching a nearly 14-year high of US$139 per barrel. Natural gas prices have also hit new highs, further exacerbating global inflation. On the other hand, as many countries increase sanctions on Russia’s energy exports, the market flow of international energy supply and demand has changed. The reduction of Russia’s energy supply has left a huge market vacancy. More coal and natural gas from Australia and India flow to Europe. And Russia’s energy is more turned to the eastern market.

At the economic level, many international institutions are pessimistic about the direction of the world economy under the influence of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. According to a Reuters report on June 7, the World Bank cut its forecast for global economic growth in 2022 by nearly a third to 2.9%, and said the global economy may enter a “prolonged period of weak growth and high inflation”, which may even appear The risk of severe stagflation in the late 1970s could have devastating consequences for low- and middle-income economies.

Although the OECD is relatively optimistic than the World Bank and is cautious about whether the global economy is on the verge of stagflation, it also lowered its forecast for global economic growth in 2022 to 3% from the previous 4.5%, and predicted that global economic growth in 2023 will be further moderated. Inflation slowed to 2.8% in 2022, while inflation in the organization’s 38 member countries is expected to double to nearly 9%. In addition, the OECD specifically warned that the cost of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict “may further increase”.

(This article is from CIC, for more original information, please download the “CIC” APP)

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