Image credit: Wind
The agency predicts that at 24:00 on June 14, domestic refined oil products will open a new round of price adjustment window, and the price adjustment rate is expected to be 340 yuan / ton. After the price adjustment is realized, gasoline prices in some areas may enter the era of “ten yuan”.
Oil prices usher in an adjustment window
Since 2022, due to the tight global crude oil supply and demand and the influence of the geopolitical conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the price of crude oil has exceeded US$100 per barrel for the third time in history. Recently, when the international oil price has reached a high of 120 US dollars, gasoline consumption has become a new trouble for people. In the UK, the British Automobile Association has urged people not to drive for short trips and to “walk or cycle to save money”.
In the context of international oil prices climbing to a high level, some institutions believe that the retail price of domestic refined oil products will be capped at 24:00 on June 14 or welcome a “four consecutive rises”, and 92# gasoline in some areas will enter the “ten yuan era”.
According to the calculation of Jinlianchuang, as of June 10, the rate of change on the eighth working day was 5.61%. The average price of reference oil was US$119.29, and domestic gasoline and diesel should be increased by 340 yuan/ton.
According to the increase of 340 yuan / ton, the increase is about 0.26 yuan per liter. Market participants believe that after this round of adjustments, No. 95 gasoline in most parts of the country will break through or approach 10 yuan per liter.
Ma Jiancai, an analyst at Jinlianchuang Energy, told reporters that if the retail price limit of refined oil is raised in this round, it means that the price of refined oil will usher in a “four consecutive rises”. At present, the retail price range of domestic 92# gasoline is generally 8.9-9.1 yuan / liter. After this retail price increase, the domestic 92# gasoline price will fully enter the “Nine Yuan Era”, of which 92# gasoline in high-priced areas in Tibet and Hainan will enter the “Nine Yuan Era”. Ten Yuan era”.
According to the agency’s calculation data, from January 1, 2021 to June 10, 2022, in less than a year and a half, domestic retail prices experienced a total of “24 rises, 7 falls and 4 stranded” (including 9 rises in 2022). 1 down), after offsetting the ups and downs, the cumulative increase for gasoline is 3,815 yuan/ton; the cumulative increase for diesel is 3,675 yuan/ton.
International oil prices rise to record highs
Judging from the trend of international oil prices, since mid-May, the international oil prices have risen steadily due to the conflict in the geopolitical situation and the EU’s energy sanctions against Russia. Wind data shows that as of the close on June 10, the price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was above $121.93/barrel, and the main U.S. crude oil futures contract was $120.47/barrel.
Cinda Securities Research believes that under the background of tight supply and strong demand prospects, international crude oil prices continue to rise.
“With EU countries agreeing to ban the import of Russian oil in stages, the market expects that OPEC’s small increase in production target will not be able to ease the tight global crude oil supply situation, and as the anti-epidemic measures ease, the crude oil market demand will be more tense, and international crude oil will continue to rise.” The agency It is believed that despite the increase in U.S. commercial crude oil inventories, the U.S. strategic oil reserves fell to a historic low, while U.S. gasoline inventories unexpectedly fell, while Saudi Arabia raised its official selling price of crude oil in Asia and Europe, and the prospect of the Iran nuclear deal was unclear. International oil prices High volatility.
From the impact of oil prices on the stock market, researchers say that changes in oil prices affect corporate profits through revenue, gross profit margins, and capital expenditures. Not only the energy sector, but also the entire non-financial sector’s revenue and profit growth rates are significantly positively correlated with the oil price growth rate, and when oil prices rise to a high level, they will begin to inhibit the expansion of corporate gross profit margins, thereby suppressing corporate profit growth.
Institutions are optimistic about new energy and some chemical sectors
Looking forward to the market outlook, Cinda Securities said that this year’s domestic oil prices “9 rose and 1 fell”, and new energy vehicles are more popular, which is expected to promote the tire industry to develop in the direction of special tires for new energy vehicles.
The agency said that due to high oil prices, it is expected that more people will choose to buy new energy vehicles, and the sales of new energy vehicles will grow rapidly. In the context of high oil prices, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles is expected to accelerate, and the requirements of new energy vehicles for tire energy-saving, low noise and other performance will promote the development of tires in the direction of new energy vehicle-specific tires.
Everbright Securities said that driven by crude oil prices, the chemical price index CCPI rose synchronously. Benefiting from the significant increase in the price of chemical products and the advantages of the leading enterprises in their own complete industrial chain, the operating income and net profit of the leading white horse enterprises represented by Wanhua Chemical, Hengli Petrochemical, and Hualu Hengsheng both hit record highs. , and is expected to reach a new level. However, contrary to the performance, the current valuation of the leading white horse companies is at the bottom of history, which highlights the configuration value of the leading white horse companies.
(Original title: Gasoline or entering the “ten yuan era”! How much does it affect A shares?)
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