In 2019, the working meeting of the People's Bank of China was held from January 3 to 4, setting the tone for the central bank's work in the new year.
The central bank deployed the nine key work directions in 2019:
First, a sound monetary policy remains moderately moderate.
The second is to further implement various policy measures for the financial services real economy.
The third is to effectively prevent and resolve financial risks in key areas.
The fourth is to steadily promote the internationalization of the RMB.
The fifth is to comprehensively manage foreign exchange management and services.
Sixth, it is deeply involved in international economic and financial governance.
The seventh is to accelerate the innovation and development of financial markets and the reform of financial institutions.
Eighth is to comprehensively improve the level of financial services and financial management.
Nine is to continue to strengthen internal management.
Steady monetary policy remains tight and moderate
The meeting pointed out that a prudent monetary policy remains moderately moderate. Further strengthen the counter-cyclical adjustment, maintain a reasonable liquidity and reasonable and stable market interest rates.
Lian Ping, chief economist of Bank of Communications, said that in the future, the central bank may continue to use various tools to guide the flow configuration and maturity of liquidity, and combine conventional policy tools with structural liquidity management tools.“Directional loosening” should be the operational direction of the 2019 monetary policy tool portfolio, and the directional reduction + money market instrument adjustment will be the basic tool combination. from
Liquidity management tools are more flexible and regulatory flexibility will be further enhanced.
The gold control supervision method is expected to be launched in the first half of this year.
The meeting pointed out that We will continue to promote the implementation of action plans to prevent and resolve major risks, stabilize macro leverage, promote the introduction of financial holding company supervision measures, and accelerate the shortcomings of financial supervision.
Recently, regulators frequently voiced their voices and demanded that the supervision of financial holding companies be strengthened, and efforts should be made to promote the introduction of regulatory measures. Yi Gang previously said, “We must strengthen supervision of financial holding companies. Financial holding companies not only have banks, but also securities, insurance, and trusts. What kind of firewalls are there between these businesses? How to conduct risk isolation? Carrying out the merger? This requires strengthening the supervision of financial holding companies.”
The People's Bank of China's previous China Financial Stability Report (2018) shows that some financial holding groups are barbaric, bulky, mixed, and associated risks, but lack of supervision may threaten economic and social stability. In order to promote the healthy development of financial holding companies, it is urgent to establish a corresponding regulatory system.
For the pilot of the gold control group simulation supervision, Zhou Xuedong, director of the Financial Stability Bureau of the People's Bank of China and director of the General Office, said: “There are five companies, namely China Merchants Finance Group, Shanghai International Group, Beijing Financial Holding Company, Ant Financial Service and Suning Group. ”
People close to the regulatory authorities said: “The pilot of the simulation supervision is constantly advancing, and the pilot targets are also representative. The main purpose is to serve to accumulate regulatory experience and continuously improve the supervision methods of financial holding companies, so that the method is more operational.The gold control supervision method is still in the process of reporting, and it is estimated that it will be launched in the first half of 2019. from
Balance the total and structural indicators
The meeting pointed out that it is necessary to strengthen policy communication and coordination, balance the total indicators and structural indicators, and effectively unblock the monetary policy transmission mechanism.
The total indicator refers to the broad money M2, the scale of social financing, and so on. Industry experts believe that as the factors affecting the money supply tend to be complex, the measurability, controllability and relevance of the M2 will continue to decline.
Ji Min, director of the People's Bank of China's Senate Office, pointed out that it is recommended to dilute the quantitative target and serve as a monitoring indicator for monetary policy. With the advancement of technology, economic structural changes and the active financial innovation, the demand for money has become more and more unstable. The reliability of quantitative regulation with the money supply as the intermediate target is insufficient. The monetary policy of developed countries is controlled by interest rate. The reality of the Lord also fully illustrates this point. It is an inevitable trend to dilute the quantitative targets such as M2 and the scale of social financing, and turn to monetary policy with the main goal of regulating policy interest rates. Of course, the monetary quantity indicator still contains important information of the macro economy, which is helpful for monetary scientific decision-making. It should still be used as an important indicator to track and monitor and improve the scientificity of monetary decision-making.
Xu Zhong, director of the Central Bank Research Bureau, believes that blindly pursuing the financing supply measured by M2 and social welfare is not a way to boost the real economy. It can not only solve the contradiction of insufficient effective demand, but also exacerbate the upward pressure on prices and asset prices. In the long run, the potential GDP growth rate has dropped significantly, the inflation environment has become more stable, the interest rate gap has gradually narrowed after the release of control, and the payment technology has developed rapidly. The lower M2 growth rate in the past is in line with the high quality development requirements. therefore,The quantitative indicators should be gradually diluted, and the role of price mechanisms such as interest rates and exchange rates should be further strengthened.
Steadily push forward the interest rate “two tracks and one track”
The meeting proposed to steadily push forward the interest rate “two tracks and one track” and improve the market-based interest rate formation, regulation and transmission mechanism.
The central bank’s third-quarter monetary policy implementation report pointed out that it will strengthen the guiding function of the central bank’s policy interest rate system, improve the interest rate corridor mechanism, enhance interest rate regulation and control capabilities, further ease the transmission of central bank policy interest rates to financial markets and the real economy, and promote the interest rate system gradually “two tracks”. And a track.”
In the view of market participants, the timing of interest rate bazard is very important. The interest rate merger should be implemented when the gap between the bank deposit and loan benchmark interest rate and other financial market interest rates such as the money market interest rate is in the appropriate range.
Cheng Shi, chief economist of ICBC International, pointed out that based on the current national conditions, the interest rate merger will experience “three steps.” The first is to raise the rails and increase the operating rate of the open market. The second is to follow the track, use the financial market to open to the outside world, and comprehensively optimize the interest rate transmission mechanism. The third is the integration of the deposit and loan benchmark interest rate by the money market policy interest rate.
Prior to Yi Gang, interest rates were the price of funds, and the market should play a decisive role in resource allocation. Market allocation resources allocate resources through prices determined by supply and demand. Funding is also a resource and a scarce resource. Therefore, the marketization of interest rates is very important. The RMB interest rate, which is mainly determined by market supply and demand, cannot be distorted. This will help to allocate resources through market-oriented methods.
Orderly resolution of shadow banking risks
Since the strict supervision of the financial sector, the shadow banking risk has been partially resolved.
As of the end of September 2018, the total scale of various types of financial financing products reached 104.5 trillion yuan. It is worth noting that shadow banking and inter-bank business governance have achieved certain results, the scale of shadow banking has shrunk, and the financial institutions' business operations have become more standardized.
Continuously improve the diversified application of foreign exchange reserves
At the same time, the National Conference on Foreign Exchange Management also clearly pointed out that the two-dimensional management framework of “macro-prudential + micro-regulation” for cross-border capital flows is improved.
Marketization counter-cyclical adjustment of foreign exchange market volatility, maintaining the stability, consistency and predictability of foreign exchange micro-regulation, strictly cracking down on foreign exchange violations, promoting the construction of “digital external management” and “safety management”, and maintaining the foreign exchange market Benign order.
At the same time, we must improve the management of foreign exchange reserves. We will further promote operational capacity building, actively serve the “Belt and Road” construction and national strategy, and ensure the security, flow, and value-added of foreign exchange reserves.
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source : China Securities Journal
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