Reporter: Qiu Yu
Recently, many real estate control policies have been loosened, and mortgage interest rates have begun to fall. What is the impact of mortgage interest rates on those who buy a house? Which banks have lower interest rates? Will there be a wave of collective downgrades this year?
Mortgage interest rate affects the cost of buying a house
Take Beijing as an example. At present, the loan interest rate of most banks' first suites has risen by 10%.
The so-called mortgage interest rate rises refers to the rise of the benchmark interest rate announced by the central bank. The benchmark interest rate is now 4.9%, and a 10% rise means that the mortgage rate has risen to 5.39%.
In the hot property market in 2016 and 2017, the interest rate of the first home loan in many places, such as Beijing, fell to 15% on the basis of the benchmark interest rate, which was 25% lower than the 10% increase.
People's Bank of China. China News Agency, Yang Mingjing
Do not underestimate this gap, the impact on the cost of buying a house is not small. Let's take a simple comparison of the loan of 1 million yuan (equal principal and interest repayment).
If the benchmark interest rate is unchanged at 4.9%, mortgage loans are 25 years, and in the case of a mortgage interest rate of 15%, the monthly payment is 5,369 yuan, and the total repayment amount is 1.61 million yuan. If the mortgage interest rate rises by 10%, the monthly payment is 6075 yuan. The total amount is 1.823 million yuan.
In other words, the latter will pay 706 yuan more per month, and the cost of buying a house is about 210,000 yuan. This money can buy a good private car.
Is the mortgage interest rate falling?
People who want to buy a house naturally want to see a reduction in mortgage interest rates.
According to data from the 360 Data Research Institute, in December 2018, the average interest rate of the first home loan in the country was 5.68%, a decrease of 0.53% from the previous month.from
The first national average interest rate fell for the first time in 23 months .
Among them, the first set of interest rates in the first-tier cities in the north, Guangzhou and Shenzhen fell.
Data Map: A real estate project that has just been completed. China News Agency reporter Zhang Bin photo
The reporter learned that the interest rate of a foreign bank in Beijing has dropped to 5%, but there are relatively strict restrictions on the age of the house, the location of the house, and the income of the buyers.
Shanghai's mortgage interest rate is the lowest in the country, with a discount of 5% on the first home loan interest rate of about 10 banks. The banks in Guangzhou and Shenzhen are down by about 5-10 percentage points, but still above the benchmark interest rate.
Although the interest rates of the first home loans of some banks in Hangzhou, Nanjing and Wuhan have also been lowered, they are still at a relatively high level. The mainstream of Hangzhou is still generally running benchmarks of 15%, Nanjing 20%, and Wuhan 30%.
For those who used to buy a home loan, will the current mortgage interest rate cut affect the monthly supply?
The personal mortgage interest rate will be adjusted according to the adjustment of the benchmark interest rate, but the floating interest rate and the discount interest rate will never be adjusted. How much has been raised according to the new benchmark interest rate before, how many discounts have been played before, and also according to the new The benchmark interest rate is discounted.
An intermediary store near a certain district in Beijing. Zhongxin.com Reporter Qiu Yushe
What is the reason for the downgrade?
First, the funds are relatively abundant.
Zhang Bo, chief analyst of 58 Housing Research Institute, said.from
This is directly related to the central bank's multiple targeted RRR cuts and the release of market liquidity since the fourth quarter of 2018.
According to the analysis of the 360 Data Research Institute, the monetary policy remained stable in 2019. The “tightness and moderateness” ensured a reasonable and sufficient liquidity of funds, and the favorable situation of funds was also reflected in the mortgage interest rate. The first set of interest rates was lowered. .
Second, banks are trying to improve their competitiveness and increase their business volume.
According to the analysis of 360 Big Data Research Institute,from
At the beginning of the new year, loan demand will usher in a wave of climax. Banks will increase their competitiveness by lowering interest rates, increase market share and increase business volume.
Zhang Bo said that from the point of view of the city that reversed the mortgage interest rate, the local interest rate is also at a relatively high level. The loan amount is relatively sufficient. In addition, the mortgage loan has a low proportion of bad debts and low risk. Under the premise of sufficient liquidity, the bank’s willingness to lower It will be more obvious.
Data map: RMB. Zhongxin.com reporter Li Jinlei
Which bank mortgage rates are low?
According to Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real Estate, from a nationwide perspective, the distribution of mortgage loans is mainly based on the five state-owned banks of China, agriculture, industry, construction and transportation.
He said that joint-stock bank loans are difficult and have high interest rates, and the market share is very small. Especially when the market is not good, joint-stock banks will fully shrink their mortgages.
In individual first- and second-tier cities, foreign banks also have a certain market share. Compared with other banks, mortgage interest rates are low, but the implementation is relatively difficult and there are many application conditions.
In Chengdu, for example, most bank first-home loan interest rates are 15%, while foreign-funded HSBC interest rates are only 10%.
Source: Rong 360 Big Data Research Institute
In addition, the national mortgage interest rate gap is very large. Beijing generally rises by 10%, while some third-tier cities can reach 20%.
Will there be a wave of collective downgrades in 2019?
"The probability of a collective downgrade of mortgage interest rates is very high," said Yang Hongxu, deputy dean of the Yiju Real Estate Research Institute. However, if there is no interest rate cut, the rate of mortgage interest rate reduction will not be too large.
Zhang Bo believes that the rhythm of some hot cities may indeed lead other cities to follow-up adjustments, especially some hot-spot second-tier cities will most likely become the next few key cities after the first-tier cities.
Of course, the policy of financial regulation of the property market will not be relaxed. The interest rate for the second and above purchases will still maintain strict upward adjustment measures, and together with the measures such as purchase restriction, will constitute a powerful “moat” for the healthy and stable development of the property market.
So, is it possible that the mortgage interest rate will fall below the benchmark interest rate as in the previous two years?
Yang Hongxu said,from
In 2019, first-tier and strong second-tier cities are likely to fall below the benchmark interest rate or benchmark, especially in Beijing. After the RRR cut, the commercial banks were well-funded, which released room for the mortgage to fall back.
Zhang Bo said that compared with the preferential measures of the first-home loan and other early years, in the context of increased liquidity, there will still be a large downward adjustment of interest rates in the future, especially for the preferential interest rate on the first home loan. It is expected to continue to increase.from
From the perspective of the downward adjustment, in 2019, some regions have a higher chance of lowering the first home loan interest rate to the benchmark interest rate.
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