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The report shows: Macroeconomic policies work together to help the economy rebound and improve.

The report pointed out that from the perspective of policy intensity, both monetary policy and fiscal policy need to be further strengthened. From the perspective of policy space, monetary policy space has narrowed, but there is still some room for RRR and interest rate cuts; fiscal policy space has also narrowed slightly, but is still relatively ample compared with developed economies. From the perspective of policy efficiency, monetary policy and fiscal policy perform relatively well in some transmission mechanisms, while their performance in other transmission mechanisms needs to be improved.

The Central Economic Work Conference held at the end of 2023 pointed out that scientific and technological innovation will be used to promote industrial innovation, especially disruptive and cutting-edge technologies to spawn new industries, new models, and new kinetic energy, and develop new quality productivity.

The report believes that the implementation of growth policies has achieved relatively significant results: first, the quality of capital accumulation has been significantly improved, and the speed of effective capital accumulation represented by high-tech industries has continued to accelerate. From 2018 to 2023, the average year-on-year growth rate of investment in high-tech industries reached 15.7%, which is 11.2 percentage points higher than the growth rate of investment in the entire society. Second, the level of human capital continues to improve, and the quality of the labor force continues to improve. With the implementation of the strategy of strengthening the country through education and the continuous improvement of the education system, residents’ educational level continues to improve. By the end of 2022, the average number of years of education for my country’s working-age population aged 16 to 59 will reach 10.93 years, an increase of 1.26 years from 2010; the average number of years of education for the new working-age population will reach 14 years, an increase of 1.6 years from 2010.

The report shows that my country’s structural policies have achieved certain results, and the policy effects on industrial structure are particularly obvious. Driven by the supply-side structural reform, the industrial structure continues to be optimized, which is reflected in the continuous increase of the transformation and upgrading index. The transformation and upgrading index in 2022 will reach 162.8, a significant increase of 53.1 from 2015.

The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the need to enhance the consistency of macro policy orientations. According to the report, from the perspective of the consistency of the orientations of stability policies, growth policies and structural policies, the three major policies all play an important role, and their consistency effects can be further improved. In terms of stabilization policies, monetary policy and fiscal policy help promote economic recovery and focus on expanding aggregate demand. As far as growth policies are concerned, by strengthening the promotion of new industries and new driving forces, it will help stimulate the internal driving force of economic growth and promote the improvement of long-term potential growth rate. As far as structural policies are concerned, by promoting economic structural adjustment, the driving force of consumption for economic growth will be enhanced in 2023, and the aggregate demand structure will be optimized; the growth of high-tech industries will accelerate, and the industrial structure will be further transformed and upgraded.

“Expectation management can guide public expectations by strengthening information communication with the public, thereby improving the effect of macro policy regulation.” Chen Yanbin, vice president of Capital University of Economics and Business, said that in terms of short-term expectation management of monetary policy, 2023 will be overall better. And there is some room for improvement. As far as annual expectation management is concerned, the main economic goals set at the beginning of the year have been relatively well achieved, and expectation management has achieved good results. In terms of long-term expectation management, the 2035 long-term goal outline and the “two-step” ultra-long-term strategic arrangement play an important forward-looking role in guiding long-term economic growth expectations.

The report also shows that the basic trend of my country’s economic recovery and long-term improvement in 2024 has not changed, but it also faces some difficulties and challenges, including insufficient effective demand, overcapacity in some industries, weak social expectations, and still many hidden risks. There are blockages in the domestic circulation, and the complexity, severity, and uncertainty of the external environment are increasing.

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