"The second big province" does not want to give birth. Why is it so difficult?


(Original title: "The Second Childhood Province" does not want to be born, why is it so difficult to make a baby?)

In five months, Shandong gave birth to a quarter of China’s second child, known as the “country that loves children”. However, even the "second child province" does not want to be born.

The data shows that the birth population of Qingdao, Liaocheng, Yantai and Dezhou in Shandong Province has dropped significantly. Among them, in 2018, the population born in Qingdao from January to November decreased by 21.1%, and the number of births of two children decreased by 29%.

"The second big province" does not want to give birth. Why is it so difficult? -quotThe-second-big-provincequot-does-not-want-to-give-birth.-Why-is-it-so-difficult

The country is a through train, Hou Yuqi, drawing

“The fertility situation in Shandong is a national barometer, which is very representative,” said Cui Shuyi, director of the Population Research Institute of Shandong Academy of Social Sciences. “The number of people born in Shandong in 2018 is less than that in 2017, and it is from the data released so far. Look, the decline is not small."

Shandong is a "Buddha", what about other provinces?

How low is China's fertility rate?

China was once known as a populous country, but the “population turning point” seems to be approaching.

As early as the 60s and 70s, a couple usually had more than three children. In the 1980s, a couple usually only had one child, but many families would rather be fined and have to have a second child. In their view, more children mean more blessings.

From 2014 to the present, although the birth policy has begun to loosen and the “two children” have been liberalized as “full two children”, China’s fertility rate has not increased too much.

Statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics show that after the release of “two children alone”, the population born in 2014 was 16.87 million, an increase of less than 500,000 from 2013. After the release of “Comprehensive Two Children”, the population born in 2016 was 17.86 million, a record high in 2000. But in 2017, China’s annual birth population fell to 17.23 million, 630,000 less than in 2016.

The decline in fertility rates not only occurs in China.

A recent report published in the famous British medical journal The Lancet, which examined demographic trends in various countries from 1950 to 2017.

According to the report, in 1950, each woman had an average of 4.7 children in her lifetime. By 2017, the average fertility rate has been reduced to 2.4 children per woman.

Internationally, the total fertility rate of 2.1 is the basic condition for achieving and maintaining intergenerational replacement. That is to say, when a country's total fertility rate drops below 2.1, the total population will eventually begin to shrink.

Christopher Murray, director of the Institute of Health Indicators and Assessment at the University of Washington, said in an interview with the BBC: "We have reached this watershed now. Half of the world's fertility rate is below replacement level. We are following this trend. The total population will decline."

It is worth noting that the "Green Paper on Population and Labor" released recently pointed out that for the Chinese population, the biggest population incident in the first half of the 21st century is the arrival of the era of negative population growth.

The Green Paper was jointly published by the Institute of Population and Labor Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and the Social Sciences Academic Press. It also mentioned that if the total fertility rate (the average number of children per woman) has remained at 1.6, the negative population growth will be advanced. By 2027.

What is the total fertility rate in China? The opinions of industry experts are not uniform.

Huang Wenzheng, a senior researcher at the Global Think Tank, said in an interview with the media that in the long run, the fertility rate in China is expected to be only about 1.2, far below the level of 1.6. Therefore, the turning point of negative population growth will definitely be earlier than 2027.

Yi Fuxian, a researcher at the University of Wisconsin, and Su Jian, director of the National Center for Economic Research at Peking University, recently issued a report saying that China's fertility rate is only about 1.05 in 2018, and China will enter the era of negative population growth from 2018 or 2019.

Ren Zeping’s team pointed out that if the current birth situation remains unchanged, the Chinese population will peak around 2024. If the birth policy is adjusted, the fertility rate will rise, and the population will peak or postpone until 2031.

The team pointed out that the rate of decline in China's fertility rate has never been seen before in the world. According to UN statistics, the total fertility rate in the United States fell from 3.3 to 1.9 in 1950-2015, Japan fell from 3 to 1.4, and India fell from 5.9 to 2.4, both far less than the decline in China's total fertility rate from 6 to 1.6.

Why doesn't China love to have children?

Although scholars have their own opinions on China's total fertility rate, it is an indisputable fact that China's fertility level has been counted down globally.

Why don't Chinese people love to have children?

In a network survey of 100,000 people involved, 49,000 people voted for "a child does not want it." Among the options of “I don’t want to give birth to a baby”, 60,000 people voted for “can’t afford it, don’t dare to live”, and 19,000 people chose “too much responsibility”.

Su Jian told the China News Agency that the reporter was a direct trainer: "In the past, Chinese people like to have children, but nowadays young people don't want to be born. On the one hand, the concept has changed. On the one hand, the cost of living is too high."

Whenever you talk about the topic of having a baby, the netizen always says: Is it too little to work overtime or is it not tired? Is the game not fun or the TV show is not good? Why should you have a baby?

There are still some people who don't want to be born, but don't dare to live.

The Ren Zeping team of the Evergrande Institute pointed out in the "China Birth Report 2019" that the high direct cost of housing, education, medical care, etc. is the "three big mountains" that inhibit fertility behavior:

“In 2004-2017, the ratio of mortgage income increased from 17% to 44%. Since the housing reform in 1998, housing prices have generally increased substantially, which has put a lot of pressure on families to raise children and buy children for marriage.

From 1997 to 2017, the proportion of Chinese public kindergartens dropped from 95% to 44%. The supply of public kindergartens has fallen sharply, and many families have been forced to choose expensive private kindergartens, which is an important reason for the high cost of preschool education.

From 1995 to 2017, residents' health care expenditures rose by 22.4 times, far exceeding the 9.2 times increase in disposable income. Medical costs continue to rise. ”

As a forerunner, Japan's aging and low fertility levels not only bring low-speed economic growth to the country, but also lead to a lack of total social savings. Some people believe that the economic crisis in Japan in the 1990s was essentially a population crisis.

Therefore, countries with low fertility levels are encouraging fertility.

The Ren Zeping team of Evergrande Institute pointed out that in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries, the encouraged birth policy system mainly covers four aspects: guarantee vacation, economic subsidies, child care services, and female employment support.

Among them, the length of vacation and the fertility level are weak. The reason is that there is a certain contradiction between prolonging women's vacation time and protecting their employment rights; family welfare expenditure ratio, enrollment rate and fertility level are related to each other. The higher the enrollment rate is 0-2 years old. The higher the fertility level; the smaller the employment gap between men and women, the higher the fertility level.

Su Jian pointed out that these countries can encourage the birth policy, such as reducing the cost of childbirth and raising children. However, he said that China currently has no way to subsidize births on a large scale, which will increase the financial burden.

In this context, there has been a call for “improving full birth immediately”.

Ren Zeping’s team pointed out that “immediately” is due to the tight population situation and is currently in the reproductive window of the birth of the third wave of baby boomers. Fully liberalized, people who didn't want to be born will still not be born, but some people who want to have three children can live.

Are you willing to be a national baby?


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