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The third anniversary of the opening of the Science and Technology Innovation Board: July will usher in the peak of lifting the ban, and the pressure to reduce holdings this year is relatively limited

On June 13, the Science and Technology Innovation Board celebrated its third anniversary, and July 22 was the third anniversary of the opening of the Science and Technology Innovation Board. As the third anniversary of the opening of the market is approaching, the Science and Technology Innovation Board is about to usher in a new round of lifting of the ban.

Wind data shows that in July this year, the Science and Technology Innovation Board will usher in the highest number of shares lifted in a single month since the opening of the market three years ago. At the same time, 2022 is also the year with the largest overall lifting of the ban within three years of the opening of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board. Among them, at the industry level, the electronics sector ranked first in the lifting scale of various industries in July with a scale of more than 100 billion lifted.

It is worth noting that the restricted shares of the original shareholders held by the controlling shareholders or actual controllers have been lifted this year. Therefore, the “Da Fei” (controlling shareholder and actual controller shall not transfer the IPO shares for 36 months from the date of listing of the stock) has a prominent feature of lifting the ban.

Looking ahead, before and after the peak of lifting the ban, the market is very prone to fluctuations under the influence of negative factors in terms of shareholder reduction and sentiment. Therefore, the market outlook of the Science and Technology Innovation Board has aroused strong attention from investors.

In this regard, market analysts have analyzed market performance, shareholder characteristics, shareholding reduction rules, historical data, etc. Overall, after the STAR Market has ushered in the lifting of the ban this year, the pressure to reduce holdings in the short term is relatively limited, and there is no need to be too pessimistic.

The Science and Technology Innovation Board will welcome the peak of lifting the ban in July, and the number of shares lifted in a single month is the highest in the three years since the opening of the market

In July this year, the Science and Technology Innovation Board will usher in the highest number of shares lifted in a single month since the market opened three years ago.

Wind data shows that in July this year, the total number of shares in circulation on the Science and Technology Innovation Board reached 10.534 billion shares, and the number of shares lifted in a single month ranked first since the opening of the Science and Technology Innovation Board. At the same time, the number of unbanned shares nearly doubled compared with the number of 5.311 billion unbanned shares ranked second in July 2020.

At the same time, in terms of the market value of the lifting of the ban (the historical lifting data is calculated by the closing price on the day of lifting the ban, and the future lifting data is calculated by the latest closing price), in July this year, the market value of the STAR Market opened and circulated was 266.067 billion yuan, second only to July 2020. The scale of the month was 352.737 billion yuan.

Wind data shows that in July this year, there will be 77 companies whose shares are lifted on the Science and Technology Innovation Board.

The third anniversary of the opening of the Science and Technology Innovation Board: July will usher in the peak of lifting the ban, and the pressure to reduce holdings this year is relatively limited -The-third-anniversary-of-the-opening-of-the-Science-andCorresponding to the peak of lifting the ban in a single month, 2022 is also the year with the largest lifting of the ban on the Science and Technology Innovation Board.

Data from the Industrial Securities Research Report shows that under the full scope, the scale of lifting the ban on the Science and Technology Innovation Board this year is as high as 1.10 trillion yuan, higher than the 829.1 billion yuan in 2020, and slightly higher than the 1.09 trillion yuan lifted in 2021.

Industrial Securities further pointed out that if the first day of listing, that is, the IPO of general shares and IPO institutions that are released from the ban are excluded, the scale of the lifting of the ban on the Science and Technology Innovation Board in 2022 will be 1.02 trillion yuan, compared with 745.9 billion yuan and 383.5 billion yuan in the past two years. The scale of the lifting of the ban has increased significantly.

The electronic sector has the highest market value after lifting the ban, and Montage Technology, China Micro and CRSC are the top three

In terms of industry, the lifting of the ban in the electronics sector in July has exceeded 100 billion in market value, ranking first. Among them, semiconductor ranks first in all sub-industries.

Industrial Securities data shows that in terms of primary industries, electronics, mechanical equipment, power equipment, defense and military industry, pharmaceutical and biological industries took the lead in lifting the ban in July, reaching 103.87 billion yuan, 70.28 billion yuan, 28.56 billion yuan, 27.92 billion yuan, 22.52 billion yuan.

In terms of the proportion of free-float market value in terms of the market value of the lifting of the ban, industries such as machinery and equipment, defense and military industry, non-ferrous metals, electronics, and power equipment are at the forefront, accounting for 41%, 40.5%, 21.9%, 21%, and 8.5%, respectively.

The third anniversary of the opening of the Science and Technology Innovation Board: July will usher in the peak of lifting the ban, and the pressure to reduce holdings this year is relatively limited -1655173201_598_The-third-anniversary-of-the-opening-of-the-Science-andIn terms of secondary industries, Industrial Securities data shows that industries such as semiconductors, rail transit equipment, general equipment, batteries, medical equipment and other industries have the highest scale of lifting the ban in July, reaching 84.86 billion yuan, 35.2 billion yuan, 22.96 billion yuan, and 22.62 billion yuan respectively. , 21 billion yuan.

In terms of the proportion of free-float market value in terms of the market value of the lifting of the ban, industries such as rail transit equipment, other electronics, general equipment, aviation equipment, and environmental protection equipment are at the forefront, accounting for 117.8%, 90.1%, 63%, 46.8%, and 40.3%, respectively.

The third anniversary of the opening of the Science and Technology Innovation Board: July will usher in the peak of lifting the ban, and the pressure to reduce holdings this year is relatively limited -1655173201_7_The-third-anniversary-of-the-opening-of-the-Science-andIn terms of the market value ranking of individual stocks lifted from the ban, Industrial Securities data shows that Montage Technology (688008), China Micro (688012), CRSC (688009), Hangke Technology (688006), and Nanwei Medicine (688029) released the market value of the ban in July. Top, respectively, 40.57 billion yuan, 36.44 billion yuan, 30.71 billion yuan, 19.36 billion yuan, 14.39 billion yuan.

In addition, the market value of Western Superconductor (688122) and Huaxing Yuanchuang (688001) lifted from the ban in July also exceeded 10 billion yuan, 14.013 billion yuan and 10.986 billion yuan respectively.

The third anniversary of the opening of the Science and Technology Innovation Board: July will usher in the peak of lifting the ban, and the pressure to reduce holdings this year is relatively limited -1655173202_708_The-third-anniversary-of-the-opening-of-the-Science-andThe third anniversary of the “big African” lifting of the ban

Compared with the peak of the lifting of the ban on the Science and Technology Innovation Board in the previous two years, in this year’s wave of lifting of the ban, the majority of the lifting of the ban is the restricted shares held by the controlling shareholders or actual controllers. Therefore, companies on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board will usher in the peak of lifting the ban (controlling shareholders and actual controllers are not allowed to transfer IPO shares for 36 months from the date of listing).

According to data from Zheshang Securities Research Report, in 2022, nearly half of the “Dafei” ban on the Science and Technology Innovation Board will be lifted. Among them, the total scale of this year’s sales restrictions and lifting of the ban is 1.09 trillion yuan, and the “Dafei” lifting of the ban is about 474 billion yuan, accounting for 43.6%. In July this year, the lifting of the ban on “Da Fei” reached 215.1 billion yuan.

This year, the scale of “Xiaofei” (other shareholders are not allowed to transfer IPO shares within one year from the date of listing) is about 382.7 billion yuan, accounting for 35.2%.

At the industry level, data from Zheshang Securities shows that in 2022, the “Dafei” lifting of the ban in the electronics industry on the Science and Technology Innovation Board will be the highest, reaching 169.3 billion yuan. Computers, medical biology, and mechanical equipment followed closely, with the scale of “Dafei” lifting the ban at 91.5 billion yuan, 72.6 billion yuan, and 65.9 billion yuan respectively.

At the individual stock level, Zheshang Securities pointed out that the top ten companies with the largest proportion of “Dafei” lifting the ban in 2022 are Huaxing Yuanchuang, China Electric Research Institute (688128), Xiangsheng Medical (688358), Bairen Medical (688198), Jingfeng Mingyuan (688368), Hangke Technology (688006), Walter Gas (688268), Baichu Electronics (688188), Qingyi Optoelectronics (688138), Nanwei Medicine (688029), the proportion of the original shareholders to be released for the first time is respectively 82%, 76%, 75%, 75%, 73%, 72%, 71%, 71%, 69%, 67%.

The third anniversary of the opening of the Science and Technology Innovation Board: July will usher in the peak of lifting the ban, and the pressure to reduce holdings this year is relatively limited -1655173203_847_The-third-anniversary-of-the-opening-of-the-Science-andAfter the lifting of the ban, the pressure to reduce holdings is relatively limited in the short term, so there is no need to be too pessimistic

In the context of this round of lifting of the ban at a record high and the lifting of the ban by major shareholders, how will the market outlook of the Science and Technology Innovation Board be interpreted?

In this regard, market participants analyzed that although the Sci-tech Innovation Board was centrally lifted before and after the ban, the market was prone to fluctuations under the influence of negative factors in terms of shareholder reduction and sentiment. However, compared with shareholders such as venture capital institutions, the willingness of controlling shareholders or actual controllers to realize profits is not urgent. Therefore, after the peak of lifting the ban on the Science and Technology Innovation Board this year, the pressure to reduce their holdings in the short term may be relatively limited.

Specifically, at the market level, Guosheng Securities Research Report pointed out that the window for lifting the ban and the window for reducing holdings are often not synchronized. Under normal circumstances, substantive reductions tend to occur at subsequent market highs, while the current Sci-Tech Innovation Board as a whole is still in the bottom range.

At the shareholder level, Zheshang Securities pointed out that compared with the “big nonsense”, the overall impact of the “small nonsense” on the stock price is obviously greater. On the one hand, from the perspective of historical data, the proportion of “Xiaofei” reduction is higher. On the other hand, most of the major shareholders of “Xiaofei” lifted the ban are venture capital institutions, and the probability of strategic exit is higher. Therefore, the market was more worried about the reduction of holdings before the lifting of the ban on “Xiaofei”, which led to a trend of early decline in the stock price.

“By reviewing the GEM, it can be found that since the opening of the ‘Dafei’ ban, the turnover rate and trading volume of GEM stocks have not had a significant impact.” Zheshang Securities further pointed out.

At the same time, in terms of shareholding reduction rules, Industrial Securities analyzed that it is not allowed to reduce holdings 30 days before the disclosure of the semi-annual report, and 10 days before the disclosure of the performance bulletin and performance forecast, and the major shareholders and directors, supervisors and senior executives must reduce their holdings through centralized bidding 15 days in advance. According to regulations such as the disclosure plan of the day, the centralized reduction is likely to cause a greater impact on the cost, which also restricts the willingness to reduce holdings to a certain extent.

In addition, Industrial Securities emphasized that in the medium and long term, with the large number of restricted stocks on the Science and Technology Innovation Board being lifted and the number of outstanding shares increasing, it is expected to further increase the trading activity of the Science and Technology Innovation Board, enhance the willingness of institutional investors to increase allocations, and further open up the allocation division. Create board space.

In terms of allocation, Guosheng Securities advises investors to refer to the previous experience of lifting the ban. In the short term, investors are advised to focus on “lifting the ban + breaking” stocks.

“At the same time, after the impact of the lifting of the ban, on the premise that the long-term logic of high growth, undervaluation, and low allocation of the Science and Technology Innovation Board has not changed, a new round of scientific and technological innovation strategic layout window is expected to open again.” Guosheng Securities further pointed out.

However, Guosheng Securities reminded investors that investment on the Science and Technology Innovation Board still needs to pay attention to risk factors such as increased volatility in overseas markets and unexpected macroeconomic fluctuations.

(This article is from CIC, for more original information, please download the “CIC” APP)

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